The Bitcoin rally indicates a real breakthrough in the crypto market

When it comes to the crypto market, the last seven months can best be summed up in one word: disappointing.

Already in March 2024, Bitcoin reached a high of around $73,000. This happened right after the first batch of Bitcoin ETF approvals and just before the fourth halving (two catalysts that were expected to drive cryptos higher). And since the BTC peak, cryptocurrencies have been stuck in a sluggish downtrend that simply refuses to break out.

Every time cryptos try to break out of this downtrend – and look like they are ready to finally restart the “boom cycle” – they fail.

One disappointment after another followed. By our count, we have had three major failed breakout attempts since the March peak – in May, July and August.

But now it looks like cryptos may finally be breaking out… Really this time.

The crypto rally has been a long time coming

Of course, as already mentioned, the crypto market is stuck in a sluggish downtrend and repeatedly fails to break through resistance.

But is the view here half full? Despite this frustrating move, cryptos have not crashed.

It also appears that October is shaping up to be the eighth consecutive month in which Bitcoin has not moved more than 20%. In fact, Bitcoin’s monthly movement over the past seven months has been less than 20%. It hasn’t risen or fallen more than 20% in any month since February. If this trend continues in October, it would be the eighth consecutive month that BTC has seen such minimal movement.

This is really unusual for Bitcoin.

In fact, according to our research, only once has Bitcoin recorded eight consecutive months of monthly movement of less than 20%. That was in late summer 2015. From February to September 2015, BTC hovered around the $250 mark and failed to break through or fall for eight consecutive months.

Then there was an outbreak. In October 2015, the Bitcoin price rose by almost 40%. By the end of the following year it had more than tripled.

In other words, the last and only time Bitcoin was this flat for so long was right before a major BTC breakout. And cryptos saw a huge boost over the next 12 months.

We are cautiously optimistic that history will repeat itself this time.

And in fact, it looks like this outbreak has already happened.

The last word

Bitcoin is currently on the rise and is currently around 25% above its early September lows. This is the biggest intraday Bitcoin rally since the cryptocurrency peaked in early March.

Additionally, this rally has seen Bitcoin reclaim its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages – not once, but twice.

This is important.

During previous “failed” breakout attempts in May, July, and August, Bitcoin recaptured key moving averages once and then lost them – every time.

It reclaimed the 50- and 100-day moving averages in mid-May, lost them in mid-June and just kept falling.

In July, Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages mid-month, lost them in early August, and just kept falling.

And in late August, Bitcoin reclaimed all three moving averages, lost them days later, and – you guessed it – just kept falling.

But here in the fall of 2024… Bitcoin reclaimed all three major moving averages in late September… lost all three in early October… and is now reclaiming all three again.

This is the first time this has happened since March.

In other words, certain technical signals are emerging that suggest that this Bitcoin rally, unlike any other this year, is the “real deal.”

Of course, that means it might be time to buy cryptos – and risk assets in general.

Crypto is a risky asset; perhaps even the riskiest of all. When it is ready to take off, it is very likely that all risk assets are also ready to take off. This also includes stocks.

In fact, we believe that both the stock and crypto markets may be primed for a big holiday rally in November and December.

Check out some stocks we like for the upcoming rally.

_{At the time of publication, Luke Lango did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article.}

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